The situation on the front has changed dramatically in recent days, when Ukrainian troops launched a large-scale offensive on Russian territory, capturing significant territories in the Kursk region for the first time since the beginning of the war. On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian armed forces crossed the border with Russia near the Sumy region and began advancing up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian troops captured several settlements in the Sudzhansky district, which was the largest offensive on Russian territory since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russian authorities responded to these events by declaring a state of emergency in the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions, as well as launching a so-called “counter-terrorist operation.” During the battle for control over the Kursk region, Russian troops encountered fierce resistance from the Ukrainian army, which forced Moscow to throw significant reserves into the battle.
In response, the Russian army continues to attack the Sumy region of Ukraine (it borders the Kursk region). On August 8, the head of the regional military administration, Vladimir Artyukh, reported that over the past 24 hours, Russian troops struck the Shostka, Konotop, Sumy and Akhtyrsky districts with 56 guided aerial bombs.
“The Sumy region has never seen such a number of KAB strikes in 24 hours,” Artyukh said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called what is happening on Russian territory a “large-scale provocation,” accusing Ukrainian troops of “continuous shelling of civilian objects.” According to Russian sources, five civilians, including two medical workers, were killed and 66 people, including nine children, were wounded in the first three days of fighting. The Ukrainian side has not yet officially commented on these events, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his address that Russia must feel the consequences of its actions, emphasizing Ukraine’s determination to achieve its goals.
These events came as a surprise not only to Russia, but also to Ukraine’s Western allies. White House spokesman John Kirby said the US administration was trying to understand the situation, refraining from further comment. This offensive could have serious consequences for the course of the conflict, as it demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to strike at Russian territory, which could force Moscow to redistribute forces and strengthen its defenses on its internal borders.
Along with the advance of Ukrainian troops, other aspects of the conflict have escalated. According to Ukrainian and Western media, the Russian side continues to stage provocations at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), creating the threat of a nuclear catastrophe in the region and putting the world in danger. Russian troops have repeatedly shelled the surrounding areas, as well as the plant facilities themselves, then accusing Ukraine of attacks. These actions have drawn widespread international condemnation, but Moscow continues to deny responsibility.
In addition, there have been more and more cases recently where Russian air defense systems have been inaccurate, shooting down their own missiles and drones, which then fall on residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. As a result of such incidents, civilian casualties have already been recorded on Russian territory. Despite this, the Russian authorities are trying to blame these incidents on Ukraine, claiming that they are the result of Ukrainian attacks.
Despite Russia’s statements that its troops have managed to stop the advance of Ukrainian units, independent sources indicate that the Ukrainian army continues to hold the occupied territories and strengthen its positions on new lines. The situation remains tense, and further developments may lead to new escalations and changes in the strategy of both sides.
One thing is now clear: in response to the Ukrainian forces holding part of Russian territory, Moscow is preparing for a large-scale combined missile attack on Ukraine, with a special emphasis on its capital, Kyiv. According to the US, Russia plans to use multiple missiles in this attack, including those supplied by the DPRK and its own arsenal, posing a serious threat to the civilian population and infrastructure of Ukraine. The move is seen as an act of revenge and desperation by Russia, which is facing persistent Ukrainian defenses on its territory. Ukrainian troops continue to resist and hold strategically important positions in Russia, which was the main factor that prompted Moscow to such a radical escalation of the conflict.
The Russian military has demonstrated its readiness for major attacks on several occasions, as was the case in March 2024, when Moscow launched one of the most massive strikes on Ukraine, using dozens of missiles and drones. These actions resulted in significant destruction and civilian casualties, indicating the Kremlin’s readiness to continue aggressive policies without regard for humanitarian consequences. We will continue to monitor developments.
